Tourism Forecasts - 2018 - 2024

Read the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment forecasts for key tourism markets for the 2018-2024 period.

Each year MBIE produces the tourism forecasts – a report that informs and supports planning and investment decisions in the tourism industry. 

Latest forecasts are for the 2018 - 2024 period. Visitor arrivals to New Zealand are expected to grow 4.6 per cent a year, reaching 5.1 million visitors in 2024 from 3.7 million in 2017 and total international spend is expected to reach $14.8 billion in 2024, up 40 per cent from 2017.

Most of this forecasted growth is expected to come from holidaymakers and those visiting friends and relatives.

Australia is New Zealand’s largest visitor market, providing more than 1.5 million visitors in 2017. The forecasts show that this market will continue to be healthy and looks set to grow by 23 per cent by 2024. Another key market for New Zealand is China, and our tourism forecasts predict that China will become New Zealand’s largest market in terms of expenditure at the end of the forecast period.


Read the forecasts

Go to this page to download the forecasts worksheet